NOAA Says This El Niño Could Be Historic. Here’s What It Could Mean Across the Sun Belt
NOAA forecasts a potentially record-setting El Niño this winter that could bring wetter, cooler weather to the Sun Belt and reduce Atlantic hurricane activity. While exact local impacts remain uncertain, typical regional patterns suggest notable shifts in storm tracks and rainfall across southern states.
Get major local stories and development updates.
A strengthening El Niño in the Pacific Ocean now has a 75% chance of reaching a level that would exceed every previous El Niño in the modern record dating to 1950, according to NOAA’s latest forecast.
The September 10 update from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the chance of a very strong El Niño above 90% during fall and winter 2026-27. For the October-through-December period specifically, forecasters calculate a 75% probability that the event reaches what NOAA describes as historic strength.
For much of the American Sun Belt, the important part is not the record itself. It is what tends to happen when the tropical Pacific becomes this warm.
From Arizona and Texas to Florida and the Carolinas, El Niño can rearrange the path of storms crossing the United States. The southern tier often becomes cooler and wetter during winter, while the Gulf Coast has one of the strongest historical El Niño rainfall signals anywhere in the country.
That does not mean a wet winter is guaranteed. It does mean the odds are shifting.
The Gulf Coast has one of the clearest signals
El Niño begins thousands of miles from the Sun Belt, with unusually warm water across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. But those temperatures alter large-scale atmospheric circulation and can move the Pacific jet stream farther south.
During winter, that often sends more storm systems across the southern United States.
Historical NOAA analysis found that wetter-than-average conditions occurred along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida during more than 80% of El Niño events over a century of observations. The relationship is strongest during the cooler half of the year, generally from October through March.
The broader pattern can extend east into the Southeast. Strong El Niño winters have frequently produced above-average precipitation across parts of the region, along with an increased tendency toward cooler-than-normal conditions.
But averages are not forecasts for individual cities. Atlanta, Houston, Tampa, Phoenix or Charlotte could still experience long dry stretches, unusually warm weeks or storms that do not fit the expected pattern.
NOAA makes that distinction explicit: a stronger El Niño increases confidence in some typical effects, but it does not guarantee that those effects will occur everywhere.
In Arizona and the Southwest, strength matters more
The connection between El Niño and winter rainfall is less consistent across the Southwest than along the Gulf Coast.
Yet the strength of the event matters.
Some of the strongest past El Niños brought substantial rainfall to California and the Southwest. Weaker events have produced much less consistent results. That makes the extraordinary strength now projected for late 2026 particularly relevant for Arizona and neighboring states, even though it remains too early to translate the Pacific forecast into rainfall totals for individual communities.
The World Meteorological Organization is also expecting the event to intensify. Its latest outlook says El Niño is firmly established, is likely to strengthen further and has a near-100% probability of persisting through February 2027. The organization expects it to reach very strong intensity before peaking toward the end of this year.
That timing matters because El Niño’s influence over the United States is generally strongest during winter.
It is already affecting the hurricane outlook
The developing El Niño is also playing a role before winter arrives.
NOAA’s August update gave the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season a 75% chance of finishing below normal, with seven to 13 named storms, two to six hurricanes and zero to two major hurricanes forecast for the season.
One major reason is El Niño. Strong warming in the Pacific tends to increase upper-level winds over parts of the Atlantic, creating wind shear that can interfere with tropical cyclone development. NOAA said the strengthening El Niño was already disrupting conditions that otherwise favor Atlantic hurricanes.
That does not eliminate coastal risk. NOAA stresses that seasonal activity cannot predict where hurricanes will make landfall, and even a quiet season can produce a destructive storm.
Still, it is another example of how changes in Pacific waters can affect daily life thousands of miles away across Florida, the Gulf Coast and the Southeast.
A potentially unusual winter is taking shape
The latest measurements show how quickly the Pacific has changed. In August, the Niño-3.4 region — one of the main areas scientists use to track El Niño — was 1.8 degrees Celsius above its normal temperature. Some parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific were more than 3 degrees above normal, while unusually warm water also extended deep beneath the surface.
NOAA now expects El Niño to continue strengthening through the end of 2026.
The agency’s most striking number is the 75% probability that the October-through-December event will exceed the strength of previous El Niños in its record dating to 1950.
For the Sun Belt, that makes this more than a distant Pacific climate statistic.
The months ahead could bring a meaningful shift in winter rainfall and storm patterns across a region stretching from the deserts of the Southwest through Texas and the Gulf Coast to Florida and the Southeast.
Exactly where the rain falls — and how much — cannot yet be known.
But by NOAA’s latest assessment, the large-scale climate pattern helping shape that winter is becoming exceptionally strong.
If this story caught your attention, here are a few more local reads worth your time.
About the Author
Good Friend Mortgage
Good Friend Mortgage has spent 21 years turning hopes into homes. With unmatched service, expert guidance, and a dedication to your future, we make...
Notice an update, correction, or detail we should include? Tell the editor. Seen something new around you? Send us a local tip.
Most Popular
A $5.8 Billion Steel Mill Is Coming to Louisiana. The Average Job Is Expected to Pay $95,000Business & Development
Siemens’ Alpharetta Rail Operation Is Hiring From $20 an Hour to $95,000 a YearBusiness & Development
Barnes & Noble Is Opening Bookstores Again — and the Sun Belt Is Helping Drive the ComebackBusiness & Development
