Rick Jackson’s Winning Map Runs Through North Georgia

Rick Jackson won Georgia’s Republican nomination for governor Tuesday with 52.7% of the vote, defeating Lt. Gov. Burt Jones at 47.2%. The result was close enough to look like a narrowly divided party. The map shows that the division was also geographic.

Jackson carried much of North Georgia and the northern Atlanta suburbs. Jones performed better across broad sections of central and South Georgia, including counties closer to his political base. The contrast created an unusually clear north-south split between two candidates who differed more in background and political style than in basic Republican ideology.

For North Atlanta, the important part of the map is the band of Jackson support stretching across the upper metro area and into North Georgia. Republican voters in and around North Fulton, Forsyth, Cherokee, Hall and the northeastern suburban corridor helped give the businessman the population centers he needed to overcome Jones’ larger-looking collection of counties farther south.

A county map can be visually deceptive. Jones appears to control an enormous amount of Georgia because many of his strongest counties cover large areas. But elections count voters, not acreage. Jackson’s strength came in and around more heavily populated northern communities, where even a modest advantage can produce thousands of additional votes.

The Outsider Beat the Officeholder

Jackson entered the race only in February, presented himself as a conservative business outsider and spent more than $100 million of his own money. Jones entered with a statewide office, years in Georgia politics and endorsements from President Donald Trump and Gov. Brian Kemp.

That combination would normally make Jones the safer Republican choice. Instead, voters selected a wealthy newcomer who argued that success in business qualified him to run state government.

The result does not show North Atlanta Republicans rejecting Trump. Jackson repeatedly aligned himself with the president and competed for the same conservative voters. In another major race on the same ballot, Trump-backed Mike Collins won the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.

The more precise lesson is that an endorsement did not settle the governor’s race. Suburban and North Georgia voters were willing to separate their support for Trump from his preference for a particular candidate.

What the Map Says About the Georgia GOP

For years, Republican candidates could depend heavily on rural Georgia while competing for the outer Atlanta suburbs. Jackson’s victory suggests that the calculation may now work in reverse: a candidate who builds a strong northern suburban coalition can survive losing wide sections of the state.

Those voters are not necessarily becoming less conservative. But they may respond differently to candidates. Many live in fast-growing communities shaped by corporate employment, healthcare, technology, new housing and heavy daily commuting. Jackson’s executive résumé and outsider message may have fit that electorate better than Jones’ long record inside state government.

The map also gives Jackson an early look at the territory he will need again in November. He will face Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, the former Atlanta mayor, in a state where the northern suburbs have become increasingly important to both parties.

Winning a Republican runoff and winning a general election are very different jobs. Jackson now has to hold conservative voters across rural Georgia while remaining competitive in the populous suburban counties that delivered his nomination.

Tuesday’s map shows where his campaign begins: not in the largest section of Georgia by land, but in the growing northern half where more and more statewide elections are being decided.

Photo Credit: Courtesy of Rick Jackson for Governor Facebook page.

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